Baseball can be very humbling at times, not just for sports bettors but also for the teams.
Each team tends to win about a third of its games, lose a third, and then make the difference in its season with the remaining third. I come back to that idea a lot as I put together bets, because some are very streaky, others are consistent, and some are wild, where you can’t tell which third they are lumping into at the time. I’m hoping not to get humbled and find the right spot for this game between the Cincinnati Reds and the Colorado Rockies.
The Reds may be in one of their worst moments of the season. They are 43-52 for the year, and that has to be frustrating considering they started the year strong and have had some really nice stretches. They were 20-11 going into May; since then, they’ve gone 23-41. That’s obviously a really tough portion of the year, but perhaps that’s the stretch where they are losing the majority of the games. They were better at the All-Star break last season and made the postseason, but perhaps they can make a run this year. This is not a team that should be losing two of every three games for the remainder of the year.
Looking to get them back on track to start the second half of the year is Brady Singer. For the year, Singer is 3-9 with a 4.72 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP. Those aren’t overly strong numbers, and he has struggled to a 6.75 road ERA, but Singer is a fairly reliable starter. He is also pitching the best baseball of his season with just 12 earned runs allowed over his past 38.2 innings in June and July. He hasn’t faced the Rockies this season, but collectively, the team is 11-for-49 against him.
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The Rockies are not a team that I talk about a lot. They are a club that hasn’t been relevant in years, and I think we are unlikely to see them be relevant any time soon. They don’t have a ton of young talent, and they don’t have a chance of signing big-name free agent pitchers. They are 20 games under .500, but I suppose ownership can be happy they didn’t spend a boatload of money on their team to end up in the same spot like the New York Mets have.
Stray bullets for the Mets aside, this is not a very good team, but as they’ve been in other seasons, they have been about .500 at home.
Looking to get them closer to that mark is their starter Gabriel Hughes. We haven’t seen much of Hughes, but he has done fairly well in his outings. He doesn’t have a win or loss on his record, but owns a 3.00 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP. He did make one appearance at Coors Field this season, and went three innings, allowing two hits, one walk, and striking out one hitter while allowing no runs. He has never faced the Reds before.
I think we are getting a bit of value here on the Reds. I’m not really sure what to expect out of Hughes, which does make this a tougher game to predict. I normally avoid the younger guys, but I think the Reds are undervalued right now. Singer hasn’t looked great when you look at his full season, but recently, he does look solid.
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I’m going to back the Reds on the moneyline in tonight’s game. The Rockies are better at home, but this is more me trying to back the Reds lineup, Singer on the mound lately, and fade a guy who hasn’t had a ton of experience. Give me Cincinnati at -105 for tonight’s game.
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