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The Democrats running for governor in New Jersey and Virginia should win easily.
And yet the races are tighter than the prognosticators had expected. Here’s why.
Mikie Sherrill, a former Navy officer and ex-prosecutor as well as a sitting congresswoman, should clobber Jack Ciattarelli, a onetime assemblyman who has already run twice and lost.
Since I began my career at a New Jersey newspaper, I can tell you that the Garden State has never been as solidly blue as it is now.
SHERRILL PULLS OUT ALL STOPS WITH OBAMA ENDORSEMENT, STAR-STUDDED NEW JERSEY CAMPAIGN PUSH AS RACE TIGHTENS
One problem that Sherrill faces is that outgoing governor Phil Murphy is extremely unpopular, and voters tend not to reward the party in power when they’re ticked off.
And then there’s the Trump factor, which hangs over Tuesday’s races like a storm cloud.
While Ciattarelli called Trump a “charlatan” in 2015, they’ve since made up and the president has endorsed him. In 2012, he voted against a bill legalizing same-sex marriage but has since flipped his position.
Sherrill is doing everything she can to make the election about Trump. She pounds away at the president, knowing full well that Ciattarelli can’t separate himself from the Trump agenda on any issue without potentially triggering his anger.
What’s more, Trump canceled a $16 billion tunnel between New Jersey and New York. That is poison among North Jersey commuters.
Throw in a month-long government shutdown, and the weekend’s suspension of SNAP food benefits, and you’ve got a perfect storm for Sherrill.
But with Ciattarelli campaigning in minority communities, it’s just not going to be a cakewalk.
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In Virginia, Rep. Abigail Spanberger, a former CIA officer, would ordinarily be rolling to victory against Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, the first Black woman to win a statewide race. Trump has not endorsed her.
But Spanberger has displayed a distinct lack of courage, and that’s hurt her.
The Democrat running for attorney general, Jay Jones, is widely viewed as a disgrace. He texted a colleague that he had “two bullets” for the then-speaker of the House of Delegates, Todd Gilbert. Oh, and he’d like to see his children die.
Spanberger could have insisted that he bow out of the race, that this was absolutely appalling behavior. But she didn’t. She still backs Jay Jones. That made her look like just another self-serving political hack.
The press has largely given Spanberger a pass, making it into a one- or two-day story before moving on. But Earle-Sears, a combat veteran, has thrown most of her advertising budget at this one issue, while also playing up the trans women in men’s sports controversy.
Spanberger is running against the Trump economy as a way of playing up the affordability issue in the commonwealth. She casts the Trump tariffs as a “massive tax hike on Virginians.”
Virginia is not as blue as New Jersey, but the northern suburbs certainly are, a place where untold numbers of federal workers have been fired or aren’t getting paid during the shutdown.
Spanberger is trying to convert some Trump voters in rural areas. But as former senator Joe Manchin told Politico, “If you have a ‘D’ by your name in rural America – grassroots, rural, religious America – they’re going to lose, no matter how they try to switch.”
Spanberger is still on track to win by double digits, in a state won by Kamala Harris – so she seems to have ridden out the storm.
NEW POLL IN KEY SHOWDOWN FOR VIRGINIA GOVERNOR INDICATES SINGLE-DIGIT RACE
Trump, who has been consumed by foreign travel and mediating wars, has paid little attention to this week’s elections, publicly at least. He has not campaigned for anyone in person during the final stretch. It’s as though he knows he has a losing hand – probable losses in left-leaning states – and doesn’t want to be associated with the outcome.
Barack Obama, the de facto champion of the leaderless Democrats, campaigned for Spanberger and Sherrill on Saturday.
That brings us to New York City and its toxic, melting pot, heavily ethnic, punch-in-the-nose brand of politics.
Here Trump is playing a role by constantly denouncing Zohran Mamdani, the front-runner who would be the city’s first Muslim mayor, as a “communist.”
The Republicans are already running against Mamdani, the self-proclaimed socialist. He is a gift from the political gods. They are making him the face of the Democratic Party.
Andrew Cuomo, who learned politics from his father Mario, when I first met him, was outhustled by Mamdani. The polls are suddenly tightening, but the charismatic Mamdani is still likely to win, largely because Republican Curtis Sliwa, the former Guardian Angel who has no chance, refuses to drop out.
The hard-edged Cuomo is hardly an ideal candidate. He was forced to resign as governor four years ago after a torrent of sexual harassment allegations, which he denies.
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Hakeem Jeffries finally gave Mamdani a lukewarm endorsement, despite the fact that he doesn’t recognize Israel’s right to exist as a Jewish state, because he’s the expected winner. If that happens, Mamdani won’t be able to deliver on most of his promises for free goods and services, because he’ll need help from Albany and other power centers.
And that will be hung around the neck of every Democrat running in places far less liberal than the five boroughs. The Republicans will make sure that Mamdani is the most famous Democrat in the country, the symbol, fairly or not, of a far-left party.
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Off-year elections are usually a snooze, testing turnout when the incumbent president isn’t on the ballot. But this one has more twists and turns than the L.A. Dodgers hanging on by their fingernails to beat the Toronto Blue Jays.