Week 4 of the NFL season is here, and we have an AFC North battle as the treat for “Thursday Night Football.” This season has already seen some pretty impressive games to kick off weeks so far in the year.
I haven’t done great on them, as last week I lost my under bet after the teams decided to score 18 points in the final quarter. I need to get off to a good start, and I’m looking to do just that in this game between the Steelers and Browns.
The Steelers come into this game with a 2-1 record after winning both of their home games. They were able to take down the Falcons in the opening game, and then they beat the Bengals last week. Their offense at home has scored a total of 50 points in the two games. In Week 2, the Patriots held the Steelers to just three points. The Patriots do seem to have a better defense than the average team, but you also need to question if the Steelers offense is going to struggle on the road this season.
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In Week 3, the Steelers hosted the Bengals. They looked great in the first quarter, putting the ball in the end zone twice. By halftime, the game was tied. The Bengals took an early lead in the fourth quarter before the Steelers kicked two field goals to win the game. The Steelers have been very good against the pass this season, holding opponents to just 192.7 passing yards. However, their rushing defense is about average, allowing 113 yards on the ground.
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The the Browns are off to a good start, which isn’t something that is normal to write. The Browns are 2-1 for the season and won their home opener last week. In Week 1, the team looked like they were more likely to finish 0-17 than they were to win two games. The Browns lost to the Jaguars 34-10 in the opener and turned the ball over twice, fumbling once and throwing an interception.
Week 2 saw them march into Tampa and defeat the Buccaneers. It was an impressive victory, even if it wasn’t overly dominant from the Browns. In Week 3, they defeated the Panthers with a final score of 21-18. Carolina and Cleveland were in a back-and-forth battle, with the Browns finding a way to score late and get the victory. Cleveland can be run on and has the 10th-worst rushing defense in football. The Browns are about average when it comes to defending the pass.
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Over the past few games, the teams have had very low-scoring games. The book seems to think this will be a low-scoring one as well, with a total of just 38.5. The weather for the game looks like it could be rainy. Neither of the teams can run the ball all that well, but that does seem to be the way to attack each other, so the under does make sense, and I think we’ll see a lower-scoring game here as well. However, I’ve lost the under two weeks in a row on Thursday Night Football, so I’m not playing the total.
The side that appeals to me is actually Cleveland. I don’t love the Steelers, and I think Deshaun Watson has played well.I also think the points will matter here. I’ll take three points with the Browns. I also like Quinshon Judkins to go over 55.5 rushing yards as he has been handed the ball a good amount of times, and the Steelers don’t have a great rushing defense.
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