What happens when the best basketball player in the world is out?
Well, we will find out when the San Antonio Spurs (1-1) visit the Portland Trail Blazers (1-1) at the Moda Center for Game 3 of their first-round series in the 2026 NBA Playoffs.
The Spurs’ star is “questionable” for Friday after entering concussion protocol when he fell on his face in the second quarter of Game 2. Based on how San Antonio has managed Wembanyama in his first three seasons, I’m literally betting that he won’t play in Game 3.
Otherwise, there is no way I’d take Portland at anything less than +4. However, I’ll gladly BET TRAIL BLAZERS +2.5 (down to a pick ’em) under the assumption that the Spurs don’t rush Wemby back.
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Since Wembanyama became the NBA’s first-ever unanimous Defensive Player of the Year this season, and he is the presumptive MVP betting favorite for the next 10+ years, this Spurs team should be a road underdog in the playoffs without him.
Per CleaningTheGlass.com, Wemby has a +15.3 on/off net rating, and his impact is greater on the defensive end. Trail Blazers C Donovan Clingan becomes the best big on the floor if Wemby is out, and Portland All-Star forward Deni Avdija can get to the rim at will.
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If I’m wrong and Wembanyama does play Friday, then so be it. Granted, they only won 106-103, but the Trail Blazers won three of the “four factors” in Game 2, so it wasn’t a “flukey win”. They outplayed the Spurs.
Also, the lower-seed is supposed to win Game 3 at home, and Portland’s defense is good enough to give it a puncher’s chance vs. any team. Especially against a San Antonio squad that doesn’t have postseason experience.
Between their veteran leadership from guys who have “been there before,” such as PG Jrue Holiday and C Robert Williams, a breakout star like Avdija, and the juice from a home crowd that has legitimate hope, the Trail Blazers are a live ‘dog in this series.
Prediction: Trail Blazers 108, Spurs 104
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