While Donald Trump focuses on the alleged “narco terrorists” in Venezuela and skirts the line between a war, bigger issues could be brewing. We already know how the Trump administration feels about immigration, but a war with Venezuela will only expand that issue, likely creating millions of refugees.
Trump has blamed Venezuelan ruler Nicolas Maduro for much of the migration to the United States, but escalations continue and could make this sticking point worse.
As the Trump administration continues its strikes on alleged drug vessels at sea, the president has threatened that attacks against drug cartels on land in Venezuela would begin “very soon.” Experts who have modeled what would happen if Trump went ahead with even limited strikes warn Venezuela could see mass displacement and a new refugee surge like the 2017 crisis, which Trump blames on Maduro, that led to thousands of Venezuelans moving to the U.S. –CNN
“We just have to take care of Venezuela. They dumped hundreds of thousands of people into our country from prisons,” Trump told reporters last month in the Oval Office, though there’s no evidence migrants from Venezuela disproportionately served prison time.
According to a report by The Conversation, when the U.S. government deported 177 Venezuelans on Feb. 20, 2025, the Department of Homeland Security alleged that 80 of the deportees were members of the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua.
Land strikes on Venezuela could start anytime, as Trump has already announced that he was going to start attacking the country “soon.”
WAR ALERT: Trump Said The U.S. Will Soon Start Bombing Venezuela
Four million people could be displaced if these strikes take place and trigger a major internal conflict.
“Any kind of military strike would cause panic and disrupt supply chains, and it would be very easy for rumors to spread and push people to flee — especially in a country where nearly everyone already has a family member abroad,” said Gil Guerra, an immigration policy analyst at the Niskanen Center and one of the study’s authors.