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Next week’s governor races may tell us more about where the shutdown fight is headed than the shutdown itself will show about those elections.
While the gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia will look largely untouched by the lapse in government funding, their results could serve as a barometer for public perception over who’s at fault for the standoff dragging out in Washington, D.C.
But only if the results stand out.
Bill Wichterman, former special assistant to President George W. Bush, said the two parties seem entrenched in their positions with no signs of blinking anytime soon. Having seen past shutdown conflicts up close as a policy advisor to Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, R-Tenn., and a chief of staff for other offices, he believes the election results would have to look dramatic to change the resolve of lawmakers.
“Let’s say it’s normally a 5-point win, and it turns out to be a 15-point win,” Wichterman said, speaking to the possibility of a Democrat winning in both races. “Yeah, that will get people’s attention. But if it’s like a normal 5-point win, whatever the norm is, I don’t think Republicans will look at that as alarming.”
Both Democratic candidates, Abigail Spanberger in Virginia and Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey, lead their Republican challengers with just a week to go until Election Day. Republicans Winsome Earle-Sears, the Virginia candidate, and Jack Ciattarelli in New Jersey both trail by under 10 points.
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In the aftermath of a presidential election, Wichterman said a good performance by the minority party isn’t particularly surprising; that would fit the historical trend for how the public reacts to a new president of either party.
“A Democratic win in those two states? Does that freak out Republicans? No, they’re both blue states,” Wichterman said.
But if Republican gubernatorial candidates can pull upsets, Wichterman believes that changes things.
“I think Democrats would look at that and say, ‘My gosh, we’re not doing well. What’s going on here?’ That would be disruptive.”
Government funding ran dry on Oct. 1 when lawmakers failed to reach an agreement over a Republican-led short-term spending bill that would have kept the government open through Nov. 21. Democrats, led by House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., and Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., have opposed the measure on 12 separate occasions, demanding Congress first consider the extension of COVID-era emergency subsidies for Obamacare premiums.
Republicans have rejected those demands out of hand, maintaining that the subsidies have nothing to do with the question of government funding.
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Despite the lapse in funding, state-level elections will remain largely unaffected.
On a practical level, the federal government largely leaves states to carry out their own elections and plays a minimal role in their administration. In many cases, the federal government awards funding for states to update, modernize, or shore up security for elections.
In one of the most notable examples, the Election Assistance Commission (EAC) doesn’t directly help organize state-level elections. Instead, it helps provide funding for security and infrastructure-related expenses through grants established by the Help America Vote Act (HAVA).
New Jersey and Virginia have each already received $272,700 through HAVA grants in 2025. Congress approved that funding in appropriation legislation earlier this year.
Wichterman believes that another way that the election could tip the scales for the shutdown is how the White House reacts. Even if lawmakers in Congress stay put after the election, President Donald Trump’s direction over government funding could force a change in position for lawmakers.
So far, Trump hasn’t budged and has his focus elsewhere. On Monday, Trump traveled to Japan to meet with the country’s emperor, among other officials.
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“I think Democrats have been waiting for Trump to crack [on the shutdown],” Wichterman said. “And he’s not. I’ve been in lots of shutdown fights starting back in ‘95. I know what it feels like when you’re part of a party that’s taking on water. Doesn’t feel that way on the Republican side yet.”
Democrats expressed similar thoughts as they shot down a supplemental funding bill to pay essential government workers. To them, the gridlock on Capitol Hill likely will remain until something provokes Trump to get personally involved in negotiations.
Sen. Chris Van Hollen, D-Md., believes the president’s is the only Republican voice that matters.
“He says, ‘Jump,’ they say, ‘How high?’ And so, he’s the one that needs to come to the table,” Van Hollen said when asked about shutdown-ending negotiations.