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Billionaire investor Bill Ackman is escalating his commentary on the New York City mayoral race, claiming Republican Curtis Sliwa’s refusal to exit has pushed democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani to a 90% chance of victory, according to prediction market data.
Ackman, the founder of Pershing Square Capital, argued that Sliwa staying in the race is helping Mamdani secure the win.
On Friday, Ackman posted new Polymarket odds on X showing Mamdani near 90%, well ahead of former Gov. Andrew Cuomo and Sliwa.
“It was not Zohran Mamdani’s debate performance. It was Curtis Sliwa’s statement after the debate that he is not leaving that has tipped the odds to 90% for Mamdani,” Ackman wrote on X.
Sliwa had said he would not drop out after the most recent debate.
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Ackman’s remarks mark a rare public foray by a high-profile investor into a local election. A spokesperson for Pershing Square told Fox News Digital there was “no additional comment beyond Ackman’s posts.”
Ackman has supported Cuomo’s independent bid and earlier in the week urged Sliwa to exit the race to give Cuomo “a better shot.”
Sliwa is not backing down. His campaign, in an exclusive statement to Fox News Digital, rejected the idea that Ackman or any donor should influence the race.
“Billionaires aren’t going to decide the outcome — it’s the voters. It’s the people. Let the people decide,” said Maria Sliwa, the candidate’s spokeswoman.
“Cuomo lost the primary as a Democrat. He’s running as an independent. Curtis is on a major party line just like Mamdani. If anything, Cuomo should drop out, not Curtis.”
She said Sliwa has always planned to stay in the race to give Republicans a choice.
“This race won’t be decided by millionaires, billionaires or professional politicians. It will be decided by the voters on Nov. 4.”
Sliwa’s refusal to exit has become a flashpoint in the campaign. Ackman and others say a one-on-one matchup between Cuomo and Mamdani would be more competitive.
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Some polls suggest Cuomo could close the gap without Sliwa in the race. But Sliwa’s team and several analysts question whether his voters would support Cuomo.
Appearing Friday morning on “Sid & Friends in the Morning” on WABC radio, Cuomo accused Sliwa of playing spoiler and warned Republicans that staying loyal to Sliwa could hand the election to Mamdani.
“Curtis cannot win,” Cuomo said. “No Republican voted to put Curtis on the ballot. No Democrat voted to put Curtis on the ballot. He was put on by the party bosses — the Republican county chairs — because he is a spoiler. And they want Mamdani to win.”
Cuomo argued that GOP leaders are backing Sliwa for strategic reasons, not to win City Hall.
“They’ll take Mamdani and run him around the country saying, ‘Look at how crazy this Democratic Party is — they elected a 33-year-old socialist who’s anti-cop, anti-business, antisemitic.’ It’ll help them politically, but it’ll kill the city,” Cuomo said.
He added that voters who support Sliwa are effectively helping Mamdani.
“You vote for Curtis, just save yourself the time and vote for Mamdani,” Cuomo said. “He’s the candidate of the Republican Party chairs. And what Republicans are going to have to decide is whether partisan loyalty is more important than loyalty to the city.”
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Cuomo also attacked Mamdani’s public safety policies, warning, “You defund the police, you close Rikers — he’s talking about releasing 7,000 people from Rikers when it closes. There are no new jails. There will be a mass exodus from this city. It will never be the same.”
The 2025 NYC mayoral race has drawn national attention. Mamdani, 33, is a socialist state assemblyman from Queens who upset Cuomo in the Democratic primary. If elected, he would be the city’s first Muslim mayor, and he has the backing of Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., and Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt.
Cuomo, 65, is running as an independent four years after resigning as governor. He is trying to frame himself as a centrist who can beat Mamdani. Since Mayor Eric Adams dropped out, Cuomo has gained ground in polling.
Sliwa, 69, is best known for founding the Guardian Angels patrol group and has built his campaign around crime and quality-of-life issues. He won 27% of the vote in the 2021 mayoral race.
Ackman’s involvement has sparked renewed interest in Polymarket, a prediction site where users bet on political outcomes.
The contract for the NYC mayoral race has already passed $190 million in trading volume, one of the largest for a local U.S. election. Ackman’s posts have fueled speculation and a surge in trading activity.
Voters head to the polls Nov. 4.
Polymarket did not immediately respond to Fox News Digital’s request for comment.