China’s military is capable of directly threatening the security of Americans, the Pentagon warned in a new assessment released Tuesday, as Beijing moves to accelerate the growth of its nuclear arsenal and aircraft carrier fleet.
The Department of Defense’s latest annual report on the People’s Liberation Army described China’s recent buildup as “historic.” It estimates that China will add six aircraft carriers by 2035, bringing its fleet to nine, just behind America’s 11.
And while China’s stockpile of nuclear warheads remained in the “low 600s” at the end of 2024, “reflecting a slower rate of production when compared to previous years,” Beijing is on track to surpass 1,000 warheads by 2030, according to the report. China also advanced its early-warning counterstrike capabilities, which would enable retaliatory strikes before an incoming warhead can detonate.
China’s President Xi Jinping has framed these advancements as part of his “Chinese dream” to build a “world-class” military — essentially to challenge the United States’ global dominance — by 2049.
China’s announced defense budget rose by an inflation-adjusted 5.2% from 2023 to 2024, according to the report. Still, the Pentagon warned that there is “broad consensus” that China’s announced budget doesn’t contain all of its defense spending.
Meanwhile, China has deepened its strategic partnership with Russia — “almost certainly driven by a shared interest in countering the United States,” the report stated. Yet the partnership remains hindered by a persistent “mutual distrust of each other.” Xi, who has instructed his armed forces to be ready to seize Taiwan by 2027, has drawn lessons from Russia’s setbacks in Ukraine, including operational strategies, modernizing weaponry and avoiding protracted conflict.
The stark military assessment comes amid signs of renewed diplomatic engagement between Washington and Beijing. President Donald Trump said last month that he had accepted an invitation from Xi to visit China in April, and invited the Chinese leader for a state visit later next year.
“Our relationship with China is extremely strong,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “Now we can set our sights on the big picture.”
“We agreed that it is important that we communicate often, which I look forward to doing,” Trump added.